EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, December 12, 2012

FOMC statement

今回は出張のためまとめるのが遅くなりました。2012年10月24日以来,約49日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回は政策金利は据え置きでしたが,来年以降米国債を毎月450億ドル購入する新たな計画が発表されました。また,失業率ターゲット政策に基づく現在の政策金利の継続なども決定されています。

1.景気回復については,"has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months"を継続中であるが,失業率が下がり雇用情勢も少し良くなってきたのでコンソリされている。とはいえ,サンディの影響で悪くなった幾つかの指標に対する言い訳も追加。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Growth in employment has been slow"から今回の"the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer"に変化し,Payrollから失業率の記述に変更。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"has advanced a bit more quickly"から今回の"has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement"に変化し,前回よりダメ押しの改善を示唆しているが,設備投資のほうは前回の"growth in business fixed investment has slowed"から変化はなく停滞感を継続。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation recently picked up somewhat"から今回の"Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective"に変化し長期目標水準より低めであるとの表現。後段はエネルギーコスト上昇について記述するも前回より一時的であることを強調。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions"から変更はない。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"から変化はなく,ユーロ圏の問題の継続を表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective"から変化なく,明示的にインフレ・ターゲット値を表現。(※7下線)
8.従来の緩和政策としては,前回の"the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month"から変化なく継続中。(※8下線)
9.新たな緩和政策としては,今回は"The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month"が追加され,長期国債の買い入れ開始を宣言。後段ではもう一度国債償還後の買い入れに言及。(※9下線以降)
10.前回とほぼ同じの"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability"の記述ではあるがABSだけでなく国債の部分が追加。(※10下線)
11.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,前回の"exceptionally low levels"の表現は今回の"this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent"に変化して,6.5%以上の失業率の間は現在の政策金利の継続を宣言。(※11下線)
12.上記の失業率ターゲット政策には,"no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored"というインフレ期待が2.5%以内であるという条件がついている。(※12下線)
13.これまでの日付ベースの緩和政策と今回の失業率ターゲットによる緩和政策の意図は変わらないという確認に加え,今後は労働市場の追加的測定値やインフレ圧力とインフレ期待の指標,金融情勢のその他の情報などの別の指標も緩和政策判断に使う可能性を示唆。(※13下線)
14.相変わらずラッカー総裁は追加緩和政策に反対し,緩和政策のいかなる条件提示にも不同意を表明。(※14下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that ※1economic activity and employment have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. ※2Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated. Household spending ※3has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement, but ※3growth in business fixed investment has slowed. ※4Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, ※6strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. ※9The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and, ※9in January, will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. ※10If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for ※11the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that ※11this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be ※12no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. ※13The Committee views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※14Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed the asset purchase program and the characterization of the conditions under which an exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate.

FOMC statement, October 24, 2012

FOMC statement

今回は出張のためまとめるのが遅くなりました。2012年9月13日以来,約41日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回は政策金利は据え置きのままで,景気が上向きな見解を示した以外は実質第3パラグラフ以降は変化がなく,静かな会合だったようです。

1.景気回復については,前回の"has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months"を継続して変化なし。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Growth in employment has been slow"を継続して変化なし。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"has continued to advance"から今回の"has advanced a bit more quickly"に変化し,少しだけ家計消費の増加の加速感を表現しているが,設備投資のほうは前回の"growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed"から今回の"growth in business fixed investment has slowed"に停滞感を確定。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has been subdued"から今回の"Inflation recently picked up somewhat"に変化して最近の上昇を表現。後段もエネルギーコストの上昇をそのまま表現。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions"から今回の"remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions"に変化して「懸念がある」から「懸念が残っている」と上向き期待の様子。「さらなる(further)」から「十分な(sufficient)」への変化はさすがにもう追加緩和はしないことを表現。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"から変化はなく,ユーロ圏の問題の継続を表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective"を継続して変化なく,明示的にインフレ・ターゲット値を表現。(※7下線)
8.緩和政策としては前回の"the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month"から今回の"the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month"に変化し,前回の追加緩和政策の「開始」が「継続」になった以外の違いはない。(※8下線)
9.以降の第3パラグラフには変化がない。(※9下線以降)
10.QE3が不発に終わった時のことを想定して"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability"の記述は残し,第4パラグラフには全く変化がない。(※10下線)
11.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,"exceptionally low levels"の表現や"at least through mid-2015"の明確な時間軸設定も前回と同じ(※11下線)
12.ブレないラッカー総裁が追加緩和政策に反対し,緩和政策の時間軸表現への不同意を表明。(※12下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity ※1has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. ※2Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending ※3has advanced a bit more quickly, but ※3growth in business fixed investment has slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. ※4Inflation recently picked up somewhat, reflecting higher energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, ※6strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. ※9The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. ※10If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for ※11the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that ※11exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted ※11at least through mid-2015.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※12Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed additional asset purchases and disagreed with the description of the time period over which a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate and exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted.

US上場企業決算日告知

アルコアの決算発表を皮切りに,2012年第3四半期の決算発表月が始まります。US上場企業決算日自動取得マクロの表に10・11・12月の列を追加して,あらたに今月分と来月分をマクロに取得させました。(まだ埋まっていないTickerは省略してあります。15日の週と22日の週に集中していますね。)

Date Company Name (As of 3-Oct-12) TICKER
2012/10/9 Alcoa Inc (AA)
2012/10/10 Google Inc (GOOG)
2012/10/12 Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)
2012/10/15 Citigroup Inc (C)
2012/10/16 Intel Corp (INTC)
2012/10/16 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
2012/10/16 The Coca-Cola Co (KO)
2012/10/16 E*TRADE Financial Corp (ETFC)
2012/10/16 International Business Machines Corp (IBM)
2012/10/16 Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)
2012/10/17 U.S. Bancorp (USB)
2012/10/17 eBay Inc (EBAY)
2012/10/17 Bank of America Corp (BAC)
2012/10/17 PepsiCo Inc (PEP)
2012/10/18 Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)
2012/10/18 Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
2012/10/18 Verizon Communications Inc (VZ)
2012/10/19 General Electric Co (GE)
2012/10/22 Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
2012/10/22 Texas Instruments Inc (TXN)
2012/10/22 Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
2012/10/22 Yahoo! Inc (YHOO)
2012/10/22 Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN)
2012/10/23 Broadcom Corp (BRCM)
2012/10/23 3M Co (MMM)
2012/10/23 Xerox Corp (XRX)
2012/10/24 EMC Corp (EMC)
2012/10/24 Boeing Co (BA)
2012/10/25 Apple Inc (AAPL)
2012/10/26 Merck & Co Inc (MRK)
2012/10/30 Waste Management Inc (WM)
2012/10/30 Pfizer Inc (PFE)
2012/10/30 Deutsche Bank AG (DBK.DE)
2012/10/30 UBS AG (UBSN.VX)
2012/10/31 GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK.L)
2012/11/1 Starbucks Corp (SBUX)
2012/11/7 BNP Paribas SA (BNP.PA)
2012/11/8 NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)
2012/11/8 MBIA Inc (MBI)

FOMC statement, September 13, 2012

FOMC statement

2012年8月1日以来,約43日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回は政策金利は据え置きですが追加緩和策がとうとう行われるとともに,時間軸表現が2015年の半ばまで延長されました。2012年半ば過ぎの現在からするとほぼ丸3年でこれは相当長い期間です。

1.景気回復については,前回の"decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year"から今回の"has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months"に復活し,前回の景気回復の勢いは失速観測をまた修正。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Growth in employment has been slow in recent months"から今回の"Growth in employment has been slow"に変化し,微妙に期間限定を削除。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"has been rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year"から今回の"has continued to advance"に変化し,停滞感はなくなったが,今度は設備投資のほうが前回の"Business fixed investment has continued to advance"から今回の"growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed"に停滞感を強調。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has declined since earlier this year"から今回の"Inflation has been subdued"に変化して下落の表現はなくなった。後段も商品相場の上昇を素直に表現。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually"から今回の"is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions"に変化して楽観的な見通しがなくなった。依然として回復が思わしくない労働市場の改善のために追加緩和が必要だとするロジックを導入。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"から変化はなく,ユーロ圏の問題の継続を表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate"から今回の"inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective"に変化して,明示的にインフレ・ターゲット値を表現。(※7下線)
8.緩和政策としては前回の"the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy"から今回の"the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month"に変化し,追加緩和政策を明示。(※8下線)
9.前回の第4パラグラフの一部が第3パラグラフに移動している。(※9下線)
10.追加緩和政策による国債保有の総額を明示すると共に,長期金利の低下・モーゲージ市場のサポート・金融政策の広範な緩和効果という目的を表現。(※10下線)
11.QE3が不発に終わった時のことを想定して"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability"と記述して,さらなる緩和策を予告。(※11下線)
12.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,今回は"warrant exceptionally"がやや表現が変えて"exceptionally low levels"になった上に"at least through mid-2015"の明確な時間軸設定が6か月延びましたね。でも追加緩和政策に比べると重要度が下がったので第3パラグラフから第5パラグラフに移動(※12下線)
13.ブレないラッカー総裁が追加緩和政策に反対し,緩和政策の時間軸表現の削除を要望。(※13下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity ※1has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. ※2Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending ※3has continued to advance, but ※3growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. ※4Inflation has been subdued, although the prices of some key commodities have increased recently. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, ※6strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. ※9The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. ※10These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. ※11If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for ※12the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that ※12exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted ※12at least through mid-2015.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※13Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed additional asset purchases and preferred to omit the description of the time period over which exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted.

FOMC statement, August 1, 2012

FOMC statement

2012年6月20日以来,約42日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回も政策金利は据え置きですが予想された追加緩和策は取られませんでした。ただし,米国経済の回復が失速していることを認めて将来の追加緩和策については必要に応じて行うと予告しています。

1.景気回復については,前回の"has been expanding moderately this year"から今回の"decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year"に変化し,今年全体では当初の景気回復の勢いは失速したことを確認。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"growth in employment has slowed"から今回の"Growth in employment has been slow in recent months"に変化し,やや回復の停滞感を強調。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year"から今回の"has been rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year"に変化し,こちらもより断定的に継続的な停滞感を表現。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has declined"から今回の"Inflation has declined since earlier this year"に変化し,原油価格とガソリン価格の下落が年初とは差があることをより強調したが,後段の文言は変化なし。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually"から変化していない。ここを急に変えることは市場へのインパクトが強すぎて不可能。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"から変化はなく,ユーロ圏の問題の継続を表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate"から変化はなく,結果的に第2パラグラフは前回と全く同じ。(※7下線)
8.今回も緩和政策の維持を特に示唆する一文は継続中。(※8下線)
9.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,今回も"warrant exceptionally"と"at least through late 2014"の明確な時間軸設定が継続。結果的に第3パラグラフは前回と全く同じ。(※9下線)
10.2012年末までのツイストオペの延長を再確認したが,詳しい説明は省略。(※10下線)
11.QE3を示唆する「さらなる行動」が,前回の"is prepared to take further action as appropriate"から今回の"will provide additional accommodation as needed"に変化し,将来の緩和策について予告。(※11下線)
12.Jerome H. PowellとJeremy C. SteinがFOMCに新たに参加
13.ブレないラッカー総裁が緩和政策の時間軸表現に反対。(※12下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity ※1decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year. ※2Growth in employment has been slow in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending ※3has been rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some further signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. ※4Inflation has declined since earlier this year, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Furthermore, ※6strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for ※9the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to ※9warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※9at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to ※10continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and ※11will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※12Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to omit the description of the time period over which economic conditions are likely to warrant an exceptionally low level of the federal funds rate.

US上場企業決算日告知

アルコアの決算発表を皮切りに,2012年第2四半期の決算発表月が始まります。US上場企業決算日自動取得マクロの表に7・8・9月の列を追加して,あらたに今月分と来月分をマクロに取得させました。(まだ埋まっていないTickerは省略してあります。16日の週と23日の週に集中していますね。)

Date Company Name (As of 09-July-12) TICKER
2012/7/9 Alcoa Inc (AA)
2012/7/13 JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)
2012/7/13 Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)
2012/7/16 Citigroup Inc (C)
2012/7/17 Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)
2012/7/17 Intel Corp (INTC)
2012/7/17 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
2012/7/17 The Coca-Cola Co (KO)
2012/7/17 Yahoo! Inc (YHOO)
2012/7/18 Bank of America Corp (BAC)
2012/7/18 Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK)
2012/7/18 eBay Inc (EBAY)
2012/7/18 International Business Machines Corp (IBM)
2012/7/18 U.S. Bancorp (USB)
2012/7/19 Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)
2012/7/19 E*TRADE Financial Corp (ETFC)
2012/7/19 Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
2012/7/19 Verizon Communications Inc (VZ)
2012/7/20 General Electric Co (GE)
2012/7/20 Xerox Corp (XRX)
2012/7/23 Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN)
2012/7/23 Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
2012/7/23 Texas Instruments Inc (TXN)
2012/7/24 Apple Inc (AAPL)
2012/7/24 Broadcom Corp (BRCM)
2012/7/24 EMC Corp (EMC)
2012/7/25 Boeing Co (BA)
2012/7/25 Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
2012/7/25 GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK.L)
2012/7/25 PepsiCo Inc (PEP)
2012/7/26 3M Co (MMM)
2012/7/26 Starbucks Corp (SBUX)
2012/7/26 Waste Management Inc (WM)
2012/7/27 Barclays PLC (BARC.L)
2012/7/27 Merck & Co Inc (MRK)
2012/7/30 HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBA.L)
2012/7/31 Deutsche Bank AG (DBK.DE)
2012/7/31 Pfizer Inc (PFE)
2012/7/31 UBS AG (UBSN.VX)
2012/8/2 BNP Paribas SA (BNP.PA)
2012/8/9 MBIA Inc (MBI)
2012/8/9 NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

FOMC statement, June 20, 2012

FOMC statement

2012年4月25日以来,約56日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回も政策金利は据え置きですが直近の米国経済指標の悪化を考慮したステートメントです。ユーロ圏の財政危機がギリシャ再選挙後も色濃く残り,米国経済の先行きにも暗い影を落としているのでFRBのツイストペアの延長が発表されました。

1.景気回復については,前回の"has been expanding moderately"に"this year"が付け加わった。今年全体で見たら景気回復しているよねという苦しい文言にも見える。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Labor market conditions have improved in recent months; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated"から今回の"growth in employment has slowed in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated"に変化し,やや悪化の観測を表現。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"have continued to advance"から今回の"appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year"に変化し,こちらも停滞感を表現。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and gasoline"から今回の"Inflation has declined, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline"に変化し,原油価格とガソリン価格の下落によりインフレ要因が後退したことを強調。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually"から変化していない。ここを急に変えることは市場へのインパクトが強すぎて不可能。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"から変化はなく,ユーロ圏の問題の継続を表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate"に今回の"inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate"に変化し,中期的に物価が安定する期待を表現。(※7下線)
8.今回も緩和政策の維持を特に示唆する一文は継続中。(※8下線)
9.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,今回も"warrant exceptionally"と"at least through late 2014"の明確な時間軸設定が継続。(※9下線)
10.6月末に終わる予定だったツイストオペに関しては2012年末まで延長された。(※10下線)
11.短期国債を売って長期国債を同額買うというオペを具体的に記述し,更には長期金利の低下を狙う効果までていねいに表現。(※11下線)
12.今回はQE3を示唆する「さらなる行動」が主に物価の安定から労働市場の改善に変更されているのが特徴的。(※12下線)
13.Jerome H. PowellとJeremy C. SteinがFOMCに新たに参加
14.ブレないラッカー総裁が緩和政策の時間軸表現ではなく今回はツイストオペの継続に反対。(※14下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economy ※1has been expanding moderately this year. However, ※2growth in employment has slowed in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending ※3appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. ※4Inflation has declined, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Furthermore, ※6strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for ※9the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to ※9warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※9at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to ※10continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. Specifically, ※11the Committee intends to purchase Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years at the current pace and to sell or redeem an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less. This continuation of the maturity extension program should ※11put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. ※12The Committee is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and ※12sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; ※13Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; ※13Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. ※14Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed continuation of the maturity extension program.

FOMC statement, April 25, 2012

FOMC statement

2012年3月13日以来,約43日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回も政策金利は据え置きで内容も前回からほとんど変わらないのが特徴です。ただし,必要なら追加の緩和処置をするというバーナンキ議長のコメントで,ユーロ圏の財政危機や政治的不安定さを睨みながら変化の少ないFOMC本文をフォローしていました。

1.景気回復については,前回の"has been expanding moderately"から変化はない。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,微妙な副詞句の変化はあるが直近の雇用統計の改善の状況のままで変化はない。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"have continued to advance"から変化はない。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has been subdued in recent months"から今回の"Inflation has picked up somewhat"に変化し,原油価格とガソリン価格の上昇懸念をより強調。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters"から今回の"expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually"に文体は変化し,先行きの明るさへの願望を表現。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"Strains in global financial markets have eased"から今回の"Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"に変化し,ユーロ圏の問題の継続を表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前段での原油とガソリンの価格上昇は少しの変化はあるが,前回の"inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate"から変化はない。(※7下線)
8.今回も緩和政策の維持を特に示唆する一文は継続中。(※8下線)
9.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,今回も"warrant exceptionally"と"at least through late 2014"の明確な時間軸設定が継続。(※9下線)
10.第4パラグラフは全く変わらないで,"to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability"の表記も継続。(※10下線)
11.ブレないラッカー総裁が継続的に緩和政策の時間軸表現に反対。(※11下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that the economy ※1has been expanding moderately. ※2Labor market conditions have improved in recent months; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment ※3have continued to advance. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. ※4Inflation has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and gasoline. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. ※6Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The increase in oil and gasoline prices earlier this year is expected to affect inflation only temporarily, and the Committee anticipates that subsequently ※7inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for ※9the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to ※9warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※9at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate ※10to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. ※11Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014.

US上場企業決算日告知

アルコアの決算発表を皮切りに,2012年第1四半期の決算発表月が始まります。US上場企業決算日自動取得マクロの表に4・5・6月の列を追加して,あらたに今月分と来月分をマクロに取得させました。(まだ埋まっていないTickerは省略してあります。16日の週と23日の週に集中していますね。)

Date Company Name (As of 10-Apr-12) TICKER
2012/4/10 Alcoa Inc (AA)
2012/4/12 Google Inc (GOOG)
2012/4/13 JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)
2012/4/13 Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)
2012/4/16 Citigroup Inc (C)
2012/4/17 Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)
2012/4/17 Intel Corp (INTC)
2012/4/17 International Business Machines Corp (IBM)
2012/4/17 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
2012/4/17 The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
2012/4/17 U.S. Bancorp (USB)
2012/4/17 Yahoo! Inc (YHOO)
2012/4/18 Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK)
2012/4/18 eBay Inc (EBAY)
2012/4/19 Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)
2012/4/19 Bank of America Corp (BAC)
2012/4/19 E*TRADE Financial Corp (ETFC)
2012/4/19 EMC Corp (EMC)
2012/4/19 Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
2012/4/19 Verizon Communications Inc (VZ)
2012/4/20 General Electric Co (GE)
2012/4/23 Texas Instruments Inc (TXN)
2012/4/23 Xerox Corp (XRX)
2012/4/24 3M Co (MMM)
2012/4/24 Apple Inc (AAPL)
2012/4/25 Boeing Co (BA)
2012/4/25 Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
2012/4/25 GlaxoSmithkline PLC (GSK.L)
2012/4/26 Deutsche Bank AG (DBK.DE)
2012/4/26 PepsiCo Inc (PEP)
2012/4/26 Starbucks Corp (SBUX)
2012/4/26 Waste Management Inc (WM)
2012/4/27 Merck & Co Inc (MRK)
2012/5/1 Broadcom Corp (BRCM)
2012/5/1 Pfizer Inc (PFE)
2012/5/2 UBS AG (UBSN.VX)
2012/5/4 BNP Paribas SA (BNP.PA)
2012/5/10 MBIA Inc (MBI)

FOMC statement, March 13, 2012

FOMC statement

2012年1月25日以来,約48日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回も政策金利は据え置きで追加の金融緩和政策などの大きな変化はありませんでした。景気が徐々に回復していることもあり,先回のPCEインフレ予測+緩和政策の時間軸設定=インタゲ政策にも近いのか(あるいはそういう誤認識を高める政策)などのような新機軸はなく新鮮味に乏しいステートメントです。

1.景気回復については,前回の"has been expanding moderately"から変化はない。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"the unemployment rate remains elevated"から今回の"the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months"へと直近の雇用統計の良さを反映。(※2下線)
3.家計消費だけでなく設備投資についても,"have continued to advance"と上方修正。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has been subdued in recent months"は継承し,今回は"although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately"と原油価格とガソリン価格の上昇懸念を追記。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects economic growth over coming quarters to be modest"から今回の"expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters"に文体はやや変化もほぼニュアンスは同じ。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,今回は"Strains in global financial markets have eased"と金融市場がやや落ち着いたことを表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前段でもう一度原油とガソリンの価格上昇に言及したものの"inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate"の部分は前回とほとんど変わらない表現。(※7下線)
8.今回も緩和政策の維持を特に示唆する一文は継続中。(※8下線)
9.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,今回も"warrant exceptionally"と"at least through late 2014"の明確な時間軸設定が継続。(※9下線)
10.第4パラグラフは全く変わらないで,"to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability"の表記も継続。(※10下線)
11.ラッカー総裁が前回に続き緩和政策の時間軸表現に反対。(※11下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economy ※1has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved further; ※2the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment ※3have continued to advance. The housing sector remains depressed. ※4Inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. ※6Strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The recent increase in oil and gasoline prices will push up inflation temporarily, but the Committee anticipates that subsequently ※7inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for ※9the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to ※9warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※9at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate ※10to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. ※11Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014.

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管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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