EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, April 27, 2011

FOMC statement

2011年3月15日以来,約43日ぶりのリリースでした。引き続き政策金利は据え置きですが,追加緩和策は予定通り終了することが確認されていますので,今年7月以降は政策金利の据え置きによる時間軸政策のみがメインの金融政策になります。先月に続き全会一致でありステートメントの景気認識に大きな違いはありませんが,FRBの歴史上初めて政策金利の発表に合わせてバーナンキFRB議長の記者会見の機会が設けられました。グリーンスパン前FRB議長などは金融政策のベースとなる考え方にも謎の部分が多く神格化されている面もありましたが,議会での公聴会のようにこのような会見が行われることはFRB議長が「庶民派」になった言えるとともに,将来の金融政策についての中央銀行の透明性がさらに向上したと思いたいです。デメリットとなるかもしれない議長の失言については今後個人の資質として向上していただくしかないでしょう。

1.景気回復については,先回の"is on a firmer footing"から今回の"is proceeding at a moderate pace"とやや中だるみ感を感じる中間表現に変更。(※1下線)
2.原油価格については,先回の"to a sharp run-up in oil prices in recent weeks."から今回の"to a further increase in oil prices since the Committee met in March."と一段の上昇警戒感を表現。(※2下線)
3.第1パラグラフでのインフレ状況については,先回の"have been subdued"から今回の"are still subdued"に変化しやや上昇観測を表現。(※3下線)
4.第2パラグラフでのインフレ状況については,先回の"are currently putting upward pressure on inflation"から今回の"have pushed up inflation in recent months"に変化しインフレの継続状態を示唆。(※4下線)
5.追加緩和策の予定については,先回の"intends to purchase"から今回の"will complete purchases of"に変化し事実上の政策の今四半期での終了と非延長を宣言。(※5下線)
6.追加緩和策に関する考慮点については,先回の"the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program"から今回の"the size and composition of its securities holdings"に変化し新たな購入を考慮しない表現。また政策変更の可能性については,先回の"will adjust"から今回の"is prepared to"に変化し外的要因が大きく関係しない限り少ないと示唆。(※6下線)
7.追加緩和策に関する政策変更の可能性については,先回の"the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program"から今回の"the size and composition of its securities holdings"に変化し新たな購入を考慮しない表現。(※7下線)
8.第4パラグラフも先回と全く同じ表現。言うまでもなくレートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,FOMC文内の優先順位は低い。今回も"warrant exceptionally"と"for an extended period"はどちらも残った。(※8下線)
9.第5パラグラフも先回と全く同じ表現。

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economic recovery ※1is proceeding at a moderate pace and overall conditions in the labor market are improving gradually. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed. Commodity prices have risen significantly since last summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed ※2to a further increase in oil prices since the Committee met in March. Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation ※3are still subdued.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The unemployment rate remains elevated, and measures of underlying inflation continue to be somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Increases in the prices of energy and other commodities ※4have pushed up inflation in recent months. The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. The Committee continues to anticipate a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. In particular, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and ※5will complete purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter. The Committee will regularly review ※6the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and ※6is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to ※8warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※8for an extended period.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

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EURO SELLER

EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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