EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, September 18, 2013

FOMC statement

2013年7月31日以来,約49日ぶりのリリースでした。今回も政策金利は据え置きでした。第3パラグラフでは緩和縮小を少しだけ期待させて結局否定してしまい,ある程度織り込み済みの緩和縮小だっただけにFRBの信頼感は少し失われたような気がします。(※8下線)

1.景気回復については,前回の"economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year"から今回の"economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace"に若干変化し,直近のゆっくりとした景気回復に再度の言及。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated"から今回の"Some indicators of labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains elevated"に若干変化したが,失業率の高止まりについては全く変わらない論調。(※2下線)
3.家計消費と設備投資と財政政策についての表現は全く変化していない。しかし,前回の"the housing sector has strengthened somewhat"から今回の"the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen further"に変化し,住宅ローン金利の上昇が継続していると指摘。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective"から今回の"Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective"に変化し,変動要因としてはエネルギー価格を切り離して考えている模様。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate"から全く変化しておらず,失業率の低下についての文言も全く同じ。(※5下線)
6.景気の後退リスクについては,前回の"The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall"から前段はほとんど変わらないが,後段を追加して"but the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market"と金利の上昇をリスク要因として挙げている。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回のThe Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term"から変化しておらず,明示的にインフレ・ターゲット値を表現するだけでなく,インフレ率が下げ止まって経済成長に影響がある可能性にも言及。(※7下線)
8.第3パラグラフは,緩和縮小を期待させる前段から始まったものの逆接でそれを否定して,従来からの緩和策は継続されている。前回まであったお決まりのDual Mandateに結びつけた前段は重要度が減ってパラグラフ最後尾に移動。(※8下線)
9.緩和政策の継続性については緩和縮小を匂わせても否定したために,前段は同じであっても後段で"Asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's economic outlook as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases"と,継続が前提でないことを明確にせざるを得なかった。(※9下線)
10.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,前回と同じ表現で6.5%以上の失業率の間は現在の政策金利の継続を宣言。(※10下線)
11.上記の失業率ターゲット政策には,インフレ期待が2.5%以内であるという前回と同じ条件がついている。(※11下線)
12.前回と同じく,労働市場の追加的測定値やインフレ圧力とインフレ期待の指標,金融情勢のその他の情報などの別の指標も緩和政策判断に使う可能性を記述。結果的に第5パラグラフは前回と全く同じ。(※12下線)
13.前回と同じく,カンザスシティ連銀のジョージ総裁が将来の経済・金融のインバランスに影響を与えるとして現行の緩和政策に(タカ派として)不同意を表明した。(※13下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that ※1economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. ※2Some indicators of labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and ※3the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen further and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. ※4Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. ※6The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall, ※6but the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market. ※7The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

※8Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program a year ago as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly, ※8the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and ※8longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and ※8of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, ※8which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and ※9will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. ※9In judging when to moderate the pace of asset purchases, the Committee will, at its coming meetings, assess whether incoming information continues to support the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective. Asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's economic outlook as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for ※10the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that ※10this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be ※11no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. ※12In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※13Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

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EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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