EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, July 31, 2013

FOMC statement

2013年6月19日以来,約42日ぶりのリリースでした。今回も政策金利は据え置きでした。第3,4パラグラフは全く変更がありませんでしたが,僅かながら低インフレの危険を指摘し,市場がFRBの「出口政策」時期によって騒ぐのも牽制しているように思えます。

1.景気回復については,前回の"economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace"から今回の"economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year"に若干変化し,年前半の総括としてのゆっくりとした景気回復に言及。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Labor market conditions have shown some improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated"から全く変化していない。失業率ターゲットに達しないうちは文言は大きく変わらない予感。(※2下線)
3.家計消費と設備投資と財政政策についての表現は全く変化していない。しかし,前回の"the housing sector has strengthened further"から今回の"the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen somewhat"に変化し,住宅ローン金利が上昇していると指摘。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective"から全く変化していない。住宅ローン金利のみが特殊な上昇と意識。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace"から今回の"expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace"に変化し,ゆっくりとした経済成長から若干の加速を示唆。失業率の低下についての文言は全く同じ。(※5下線)
6.景気の後退リスクについては,前回の"The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall"から全く変化していない。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective"から今回の"The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term"に変化し,明示的にインフレ・ターゲット値を表現するだけでなく,インフレ率が下げ止まって経済成長に影響がある可能性に初めて言及。(※7下線)
8.第3パラグラフは前回と全く同じなので,従来からの緩和策は変化なく継続中。(※8下線)
9.緩和政策の継続性についても前回と同じ表現。(※9下線)
10.将来の緩和政策についても前回と同じ表現で機動的な緩和政策について記述。結果として第4パラグラフは前回と同じ。(※10下線)
11.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,前回と同じ表現で6.5%以上の失業率の間は現在の政策金利の継続を宣言。(※11下線)
12.上記の失業率ターゲット政策には,インフレ期待が2.5%以内であるという前回と同じ条件がついている。(※12下線)
13.前回と同じく,労働市場の追加的測定値やインフレ圧力とインフレ期待の指標,金融情勢のその他の情報などの別の指標も緩和政策判断に使う可能性を記述。ただし第5パラグラフの最初の文の一部が"the Committee expects that..."から"the Committee today reaffirmed its view that..."に変化し,多少は市場が「出口政策」で騒ぐのを牽制。(※13下線)
14.前回と同じく,カンザスシティ連銀のジョージ総裁が将来の経済・金融のインバランスに影響を与えるとして現行の緩和政策に(タカ派として)不同意を表明した。※7下線の表現が追加されたことにより,セントルイス連銀のブラード総裁は前回の不同意を撤回。(※14下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that ※1economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year. ※2Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and ※3the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen somewhat and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. ※4Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. ※6The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall. ※7The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and ※8longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and ※8of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. ※9The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. ※9The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases ※10as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for ※11the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that ※11this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be ※12no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. ※13In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; ※14James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※14Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

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管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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