EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, May 1, 2013

FOMC statement

2013年3月20日以来,約42日ぶりのリリースでした。言うまでもなく今回も政策金利は据え置きでしたが,直前のISM製造業景気指数の雇用指数が良くなかった割りにはFOMC上は雇用について余り心配している気配がないのが不思議でした。休暇の関係でこのエントリも金曜日の雇用統計後に書いているのですがNFPの良い結果を見据えたようなリリース文でした。第1パラグラフの若干の修正を除くと,第4パラグラフの%9下線で挿入された国債買取額の増減についての初めての言及が目新しいところです。黒田日銀とは異なり,FRBがそろそろ出口戦略に言及しはじめたことは,債券市場と株式市場に何らかの影響を与えそうですが,今秋までまだ時間的余裕が有る間は米国株式市場の上値追いは可能でしょう。

1.景気回復については,前回の"a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year"から今回の"economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace"に変化し,前回の景気の戻りが継続してゆっくりとした景気回復につながっていることを示唆。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement in recent months but the unemployment rate remains elevated"から今回の"Labor market conditions have shown some improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated"に変化し,多少ではあるが「改善のしるし」から「ある程度の改善」に上方修正された記述。(※2下線)
3.家計消費と設備投資と住宅セクターについては,前回と表現が同じであるものの,財政政策についての表現が前回の"fiscal policy has become somewhat more restrictive"から今回の"fiscal policy is restraining economic growth"に変化し,財政政策が経済成長への足かせになっていることをもっと直接的に表現。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective"から全く変化していない。長期目標水準より低めであることと,エネルギーコスト上昇が一時的であることを強調。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate"から全く変化していない。失業率の低下がゆっくりであることを強調。(※5下線)
6.景気の後退リスクについては,前回の"The Committee continues to see downside risks"から全く変化していない。金融市場とリンクしていないので米国経済単独のダウンサイド・リスクに読み取れる。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective"から変化なく,明示的にインフレ・ターゲット値を表現。結果として第2パラグラフは前回と同じ。(※7下線)
8.第3パラグラフは前回と全く同じなので,従来からの緩和策は変化なく継続中。(※8下線)
9.緩和政策の継続性については,前段の部分は前回と全く同じだが,今回は"The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes"という一文が挿入されて,多少は出口戦略に向かって考慮中なことも示唆。(※9下線)
10.将来の緩和政策については,前回の"as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives"の節から変化しておらず,機動的な緩和政策について記述。(※10下線)
11.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,"this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent"という前回と同じ表現で,6.5%以上の失業率の間は現在の政策金利の継続を宣言。(※11下線)
12.上記の失業率ターゲット政策には,"no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored"というインフレ期待が2.5%以内であるという前回と同じ条件がついている。(※12下線)
13.前回と同じく,労働市場の追加的測定値やインフレ圧力とインフレ期待の指標,金融情勢のその他の情報などの別の指標も緩和政策判断に使う可能性を記述。結果として第5パラグラフは前回と同じ。(※13下線)
14.前回と同じく,カンザスシティ連銀のジョージ総裁が将来の経済・金融のインバランスに影響を与えるとして現行の緩和政策に不同意を表明。(※14下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that ※1economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. ※2Labor market conditions have shown some improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but ※3fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. ※4Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. ※6The Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and ※8longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and ※8of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. ※9The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. ※9The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases ※10as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for ※11the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that ※11this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be ※12no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. ※13In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※14Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

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EURO SELLER

EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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