EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, March 20, 2013

FOMC statement

キプロス問題でニヤニヤしている間にFOMCが開かれていましたけど…。2013年1月30日以来,約49日ぶりのリリースでした。言うまでもなく今回も政策金利は据え置きでしたが,これといったトピックもなくあっさりしたFOMCでした。欧州方面が恒例の春のイベント祭りで大変な一方で,比較的堅調に推移する米国経済なので本来で言えばもっと強気でも良いのですが,失業率ターゲティングのおかげで迂闊に緩和政策を切りにくくなっています。国債購入額の縮小などが今秋以降検討されている様子です。完全に出口戦略を実施する前にバーナンキ議長も退任になり,彼の評価も後の世代に委ねることになるでしょう。

1.景気回復については,前回の"paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors"から今回の"a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year"に変化し,昨年末の景気の停滞気味から戻ってきたよという上方修正の記述に変更。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Employment has continued to expand at a moderate pace but the unemployment rate remains elevated"から今回の"Labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement in recent months but the unemployment rate remains elevated"に変化したが,後段は同じで前段も言い換えたのみという工夫の乏しい記述。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"advanced, and the housing sector has shown further improvement"から今回の"advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy has become somewhat more restrictive"に変化し,設備投資と共に前回と同じ表現だが,住宅市場の方は改善から強さを表す表現に上方修正。また,政府の財政政策に制限が多くなっていることに初めて言及。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective"から全く変化していない。長期目標水準より低めであることと,エネルギーコスト上昇が一時的であることを強調。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate"から全く変化していない。失業率の低下がゆっくりであることを強調。(※5下線)
6.金融市場の後退リスクは,前回の"strains in global financial markets have eased somewhat, the Committee continues to see downside risks"から今回の"The Committee continues to see downside risks"に変化して前段部分が削除され,キプロス問題については触れないままダウンサイド・リスクを継続中。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective"から変化なく,明示的にインフレ・ターゲット値を表現。(※7下線)
8.第3パラグラフは前回と全く同じなので,従来からの緩和策は変化なく継続中。(※8下線)
9.緩和政策の継続性については,前回の"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially"の条件が削除されて,労働市場の順調な改善は織り込んだままで後段だけ残った。(※9下線)
10.将来の緩和政策については,今回新たに"as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives"の節が追加されたが,一層の緩和政策への歯止めなのかどうかははっきりしない。(※10下線)
11.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,"this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent"という前回と同じ表現で,6.5%以上の失業率の間は現在の政策金利の継続を宣言。(※11下線)
12.上記の失業率ターゲット政策には,"no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored"というインフレ期待が2.5%以内であるという前回と同じ条件がついている。(※12下線)
13.前回と同じく,労働市場の追加的測定値やインフレ圧力とインフレ期待の指標,金融情勢のその他の情報などの別の指標も緩和政策判断に使う可能性を記述。結果として第5パラグラフは前回と同じ。(※13下線)
14.カンザスシティ連銀のジョージ総裁が将来の経済・金融のインバランスに影響を与えるとして現行の緩和政策に不同意を表明。(※14下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests ※1a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year. ※2Labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement in recent months but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment ※3advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy has become somewhat more restrictive. ※4Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. ※6The Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and ※8longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and ※8of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. ※9The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases ※10as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for ※11the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that ※11this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be ※12no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. ※13In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※14Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

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Appendix

EURO SELLER

EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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