EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, January 30, 2013

FOMC statement

今回も出張が重なってまたまとめるのが遅くなりました。2012年12月12日以来,約42日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回も政策金利は据え置きでしたが,米国債を毎月450億ドル購入する計画とそれ以前から続いているMBSを毎月400億ドル購入する計画は継続されています。また,失業率ターゲット政策に基づく現在の政策金利の継続なども同様です。

1.景気回復については,前回の"have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions"から今回の"paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors"に変化し,若干下方修正の記述に変更。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated"から今回の"Employment has continued to expand at a moderate pace but the unemployment rate remains elevated"に変化し,雇用の拡大をより示唆するも失業率の高止まりを強調。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement"から今回の"advanced, and the housing sector has shown further improvement"に変化し,前回よりややあっさりとした記述になっているが,設備投資のほうも同じ主語で述べられているので,こちらは前回の"growth in business fixed investment has slowed"から大きく改善。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective"から全く変化していない。長期目標水準より低めであることと,エネルギーコスト上昇が一時的であることを強調。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions"から今回の"expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate"に変化し,十分な緩和が必要だという政策面の強調から失業率の低下がゆっくりであることの強調に変化。(※5下線)
6.金融市場の後退リスクは,前回の"strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"から今回の"strains in global financial markets have eased somewhat, the Committee continues to see downside risks"に変化し,ややこの面での改善を示唆。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective"から変化なく,明示的にインフレ・ターゲット値を表現。(※7下線)
8.従来の緩和政策としては,前回の"the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month"から変化なく継続中。(※8下線)
9.前回からの緩和政策としては,今回は"longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month"と長期国債の買い入れとそのロールオーバーについては簡潔に記述。(※9下線以降)
10.第4パラグラフは前回と全く同じなので将来の緩和政策に含みを持たせている。(※10下線)
11.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,"this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent"という前回と同じ表現で,6.5%以上の失業率の間は現在の政策金利の継続を宣言。(※11下線)
12.上記の失業率ターゲット政策には,"no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored"というインフレ期待が2.5%以内であるという前回と同じ条件がついている。(※12下線)
13.前回と同じく,労働市場の追加的測定値やインフレ圧力とインフレ期待の指標,金融情勢のその他の情報などの別の指標も緩和政策判断に使う可能性を記述。(※13下線)
14.幾人かのFOMCメンバーの退任と新任があり,ラッカー総裁も退任するがカンザスシティ連銀のジョージ総裁が将来の経済・金融のインバランスに影響を与えるとして現行の緩和政策に不同意を表明。(※14下線)

※FOMCメンバーの新任・退任メンバー(括弧内は連銀名)
新任4名:ローゼングレン総裁(ボストン),エバンズ総裁(シカゴ),ブラード総裁(セントルイス),ジョージ総裁(カンザスシティ)
退任4名:ラッカー総裁(リッチモンド),ロックハート総裁(アトランタ),ピアナルト総裁(クリーブランド),ウィリアムズ総裁(サンフランシスコ)


For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that ※1growth in economic activity paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors. ※2Employment has continued to expand at a moderate pace but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment ※3advanced, and the housing sector has shown further improvement. ※4Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. Although ※6strains in global financial markets have eased somewhat, the Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and ※9longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and ※9of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. ※10If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for ※11the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that ※11this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be ※12no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. ※13In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; ※14James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; ※14Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; ※14Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※14Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

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Appendix

EURO SELLER

EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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