EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, September 13, 2012

FOMC statement

2012年8月1日以来,約43日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回は政策金利は据え置きですが追加緩和策がとうとう行われるとともに,時間軸表現が2015年の半ばまで延長されました。2012年半ば過ぎの現在からするとほぼ丸3年でこれは相当長い期間です。

1.景気回復については,前回の"decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year"から今回の"has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months"に復活し,前回の景気回復の勢いは失速観測をまた修正。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Growth in employment has been slow in recent months"から今回の"Growth in employment has been slow"に変化し,微妙に期間限定を削除。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"has been rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year"から今回の"has continued to advance"に変化し,停滞感はなくなったが,今度は設備投資のほうが前回の"Business fixed investment has continued to advance"から今回の"growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed"に停滞感を強調。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has declined since earlier this year"から今回の"Inflation has been subdued"に変化して下落の表現はなくなった。後段も商品相場の上昇を素直に表現。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually"から今回の"is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions"に変化して楽観的な見通しがなくなった。依然として回復が思わしくない労働市場の改善のために追加緩和が必要だとするロジックを導入。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"から変化はなく,ユーロ圏の問題の継続を表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate"から今回の"inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective"に変化して,明示的にインフレ・ターゲット値を表現。(※7下線)
8.緩和政策としては前回の"the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy"から今回の"the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month"に変化し,追加緩和政策を明示。(※8下線)
9.前回の第4パラグラフの一部が第3パラグラフに移動している。(※9下線)
10.追加緩和政策による国債保有の総額を明示すると共に,長期金利の低下・モーゲージ市場のサポート・金融政策の広範な緩和効果という目的を表現。(※10下線)
11.QE3が不発に終わった時のことを想定して"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability"と記述して,さらなる緩和策を予告。(※11下線)
12.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,今回は"warrant exceptionally"がやや表現が変えて"exceptionally low levels"になった上に"at least through mid-2015"の明確な時間軸設定が6か月延びましたね。でも追加緩和政策に比べると重要度が下がったので第3パラグラフから第5パラグラフに移動(※12下線)
13.ブレないラッカー総裁が追加緩和政策に反対し,緩和政策の時間軸表現の削除を要望。(※13下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity ※1has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. ※2Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending ※3has continued to advance, but ※3growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. ※4Inflation has been subdued, although the prices of some key commodities have increased recently. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, ※6strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. ※9The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. ※10These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. ※11If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for ※12the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that ※12exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted ※12at least through mid-2015.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※13Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed additional asset purchases and preferred to omit the description of the time period over which exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted.

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EURO SELLER

EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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