EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, August 1, 2012

FOMC statement

2012年6月20日以来,約42日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回も政策金利は据え置きですが予想された追加緩和策は取られませんでした。ただし,米国経済の回復が失速していることを認めて将来の追加緩和策については必要に応じて行うと予告しています。

1.景気回復については,前回の"has been expanding moderately this year"から今回の"decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year"に変化し,今年全体では当初の景気回復の勢いは失速したことを確認。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"growth in employment has slowed"から今回の"Growth in employment has been slow in recent months"に変化し,やや回復の停滞感を強調。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year"から今回の"has been rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year"に変化し,こちらもより断定的に継続的な停滞感を表現。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has declined"から今回の"Inflation has declined since earlier this year"に変化し,原油価格とガソリン価格の下落が年初とは差があることをより強調したが,後段の文言は変化なし。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually"から変化していない。ここを急に変えることは市場へのインパクトが強すぎて不可能。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"から変化はなく,ユーロ圏の問題の継続を表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate"から変化はなく,結果的に第2パラグラフは前回と全く同じ。(※7下線)
8.今回も緩和政策の維持を特に示唆する一文は継続中。(※8下線)
9.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,今回も"warrant exceptionally"と"at least through late 2014"の明確な時間軸設定が継続。結果的に第3パラグラフは前回と全く同じ。(※9下線)
10.2012年末までのツイストオペの延長を再確認したが,詳しい説明は省略。(※10下線)
11.QE3を示唆する「さらなる行動」が,前回の"is prepared to take further action as appropriate"から今回の"will provide additional accommodation as needed"に変化し,将来の緩和策について予告。(※11下線)
12.Jerome H. PowellとJeremy C. SteinがFOMCに新たに参加
13.ブレないラッカー総裁が緩和政策の時間軸表現に反対。(※12下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity ※1decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year. ※2Growth in employment has been slow in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending ※3has been rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some further signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. ※4Inflation has declined since earlier this year, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Furthermore, ※6strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for ※9the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to ※9warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※9at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to ※10continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and ※11will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※12Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to omit the description of the time period over which economic conditions are likely to warrant an exceptionally low level of the federal funds rate.

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EURO SELLER

EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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