EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, June 20, 2012

FOMC statement

2012年4月25日以来,約56日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回も政策金利は据え置きですが直近の米国経済指標の悪化を考慮したステートメントです。ユーロ圏の財政危機がギリシャ再選挙後も色濃く残り,米国経済の先行きにも暗い影を落としているのでFRBのツイストペアの延長が発表されました。

1.景気回復については,前回の"has been expanding moderately"に"this year"が付け加わった。今年全体で見たら景気回復しているよねという苦しい文言にも見える。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Labor market conditions have improved in recent months; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated"から今回の"growth in employment has slowed in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated"に変化し,やや悪化の観測を表現。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"have continued to advance"から今回の"appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year"に変化し,こちらも停滞感を表現。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and gasoline"から今回の"Inflation has declined, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline"に変化し,原油価格とガソリン価格の下落によりインフレ要因が後退したことを強調。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually"から変化していない。ここを急に変えることは市場へのインパクトが強すぎて不可能。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"から変化はなく,ユーロ圏の問題の継続を表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate"に今回の"inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate"に変化し,中期的に物価が安定する期待を表現。(※7下線)
8.今回も緩和政策の維持を特に示唆する一文は継続中。(※8下線)
9.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,今回も"warrant exceptionally"と"at least through late 2014"の明確な時間軸設定が継続。(※9下線)
10.6月末に終わる予定だったツイストオペに関しては2012年末まで延長された。(※10下線)
11.短期国債を売って長期国債を同額買うというオペを具体的に記述し,更には長期金利の低下を狙う効果までていねいに表現。(※11下線)
12.今回はQE3を示唆する「さらなる行動」が主に物価の安定から労働市場の改善に変更されているのが特徴的。(※12下線)
13.Jerome H. PowellとJeremy C. SteinがFOMCに新たに参加
14.ブレないラッカー総裁が緩和政策の時間軸表現ではなく今回はツイストオペの継続に反対。(※14下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economy ※1has been expanding moderately this year. However, ※2growth in employment has slowed in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending ※3appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. ※4Inflation has declined, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Furthermore, ※6strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for ※9the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to ※9warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※9at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to ※10continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. Specifically, ※11the Committee intends to purchase Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years at the current pace and to sell or redeem an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less. This continuation of the maturity extension program should ※11put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. ※12The Committee is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and ※12sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; ※13Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; ※13Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. ※14Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed continuation of the maturity extension program.

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管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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