EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, December 13, 2011

FOMC statement

2011年10月2日以来,約41日ぶりのリリースでした。今回も政策金利は据え置きで,米国景気に対しては特に悲観材料も無いので追加緩和についての言及はありませんでした。今回は市場も期待していないので当然ですね。もちろん「緩和あるある詐欺」は健在です。(※8下線)

1.景気回復については,前回の"strengthened somewhat"から今回の"has been expanding moderately"とさらに巡航速度の成長を強調。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions"から今回の"some improvement in overall labor market conditions"と失業率の高止まりの中でも良い兆しを指摘。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"at a somewhat faster pace in recent months"から今回の"continued to advance"と単純な表現に変化して顕著な増加の終了を示唆。(※3下線)
4.設備投資とソフトウェア投資については,前回の"has continued to expand"から今回の"appears to be increasing less rapidly"とやや停滞感を漂わせつつビジネス投資と一括りに表現。(※4下線)
5.インフレ要因については,今回は"Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year"と短い表現になり長ったらしい商品相場の下落要因を(後段も含めて)削除。(※5下線)
6.失業率の前提となる景気の展望は変えていないので,前回の"to expect a moderate pace of economic growth"という表現は同じ。(※6下線)
7.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,今回は"Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook"と明らかにユーロ金融危機を念頭においた表現。(※7下線)
8.第3-第6パラグラフは全く変わっていない。
9.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで(2013年の半ばまで継続予定が決定しているので)FOMC文内の優先順位は低い。今回も"warrant exceptionally"と"at least through mid-2013"の明確な時間軸効果はそのまま継続。(※9下線)
10.前回と同じく,エバンス総裁がさらなる追加緩和を主張して今回は反対のままである。(※10下線)


For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy ※1has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth. While indicators point to ※2some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has ※3continued to advance, but business fixed investment ※4appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed. ※5Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues ※6to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. ※7Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and ※8is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for ※9the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to ※9warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※9at least through mid-2013.

The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. ※10Voting against the action was Charles L. Evans, who supported additional policy accommodation at this time.

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EURO SELLER

EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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