EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, August 9, 2011

FOMC statement

2011年6月22日以来,約48日ぶりのリリースでした。今回は政策金利は据え置きでしたが,2013年半ばまでの緩和政策の明確な時間軸効果を狙った表現に異例の3名の反対がありました。景気回復の遅さへのいらだちが随所に感じられ,景気後退へのダウンサイドリスクも初めて明確に表現しました。

1.景気回復については,前回の"though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected"から今回の"considerably slower than the Committee had expected"とさらに回復速度に不満感を表明。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated"から今回の"a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up."と失業率を明示して高止まりを指摘。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,"Household spending has flattened out"とイーブンのまま拡大しないと指摘。設備投資とソフトウェア投資が拡大しているのと対照的。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については前回と同じだが,"More recently, inflation has moderated as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their earlier peaks"という表現で最近下落してきた商品価格によって低く抑えられていると指摘。(※4下線)
5.失業率については,"The Committee now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting"という表現で前回よりも低下を期待できなくなった弱気。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクを"Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased"と明示。(※6下線)
7.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きでFOMC文内の優先順位は低い。今回も"warrant exceptionally"はそのままだが"for an extended period"は"at least through mid-2013"に変更されて,2013年半ばまでの緩和政策の明確な時間軸効果を狙った表現。(※7下線)
8.強い景気回復のためのツールに関して,"The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability"と物価の安定の範囲において更に幅広い方法を模索していることを示唆。(※8下線)
9.3名のFOMCメンバーが,2013年半ばまでの緩和政策の明確な時間軸効果を狙った表現に反対して"for an extended period"という前月までの表現を主張。(※9下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic growth so far this year has been ※1considerably slower than the Committee had expected. Indicators suggest ※2a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up. ※3Household spending has flattened out, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, ※3business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Temporary factors, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan, appear to account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity. Inflation picked up earlier in the year, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the supply chain disruptions. ※4More recently, inflation has moderated as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their earlier peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. ※5The Committee now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting and anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. ※6Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for ※7the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to ※7warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※7at least through mid-2013. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

※8The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

Voting against the action were: ※9Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who would have preferred to continue to describe economic conditions as likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※9for an extended period.

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EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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