EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, June 22, 2011

FOMC statement

2011年4月27日以来,約56日ぶりのリリースでした。引き続き全会一致で政策金利は据え置きのまま,景気回復の遅さを表明しています。また,バーナンキFRB議長の記者会見の機会が先回に続いて行われました。先のことは分からないというのが実情でしょうが,ともかく追加緩和政策の終了を宣言して今回のFOMCは終了しました。

1.景気回復については,今回の"though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected"と回復速度に不満感を表明。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"overall conditions in the labor market are improving gradually"から今回の"recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated"とこちらも改善度合いの弱さを指摘。(※2下線)
3.景気回復の遅さについては,"the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power"というエネルギー価格の上昇に加え,"spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan"と日本の震災に伴うサプライチェーン回復費用が負担になっていることを言明。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,"mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the recent supply chain disruptions."という表現で原油価格以外にもサプライチェーンの混乱による輸入物価の上昇の影響を考慮。(※4下線)
5.失業率については,"the pace of recovery to pick up over coming quarters and the unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline toward levels"という表現である程度のレベルの低下を期待し評価。(※5下線)
6.さすがに景気回復のペースを,先回のように"a stronger pace of economic recovery"とは書けずに"the ongoing economic recovery"に控えめな表現に後退。(※6下線)
7.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きでFOMC文内の優先順位は低いが,第3・第4パラグラフが合体して今月末の新規国債買い入れの終了の記述よりは先になった。今回も"warrant exceptionally"と"for an extended period"はどちらも残った。(※7下線)
8.経済・金融情勢のモニタリングに関しては,デュアルマンデートのことは言及したが,先回の"to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent"というインフレ懸念については省略。景気の悪さが念頭にありインフレについては優先順位が低いと思われる。(※8下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, ※1though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected. Also, ※2recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated. The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including ※3the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed. Inflation has picked up in recent months, ※4mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the recent supply chain disruptions. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The unemployment rate remains elevated; however, the Committee expects ※5the pace of recovery to pick up over coming quarters and the unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Inflation has moved up recently, but the Committee anticipates that inflation will subside to levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To promote ※6the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for ※7the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to ※7warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※7for an extended period. The Committee will complete its purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of this month and will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee will monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will act as needed ※8to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

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EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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