EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

米11月小売売上高は全体は予想以下だが,コアは予想通りでまあまあ

Retail Sales Rebound as Jobless Claims Decline in U.S.

11月の小売売上高は「自動車を除くコア」が前月比0.0%と予想の0.0%と同じで,全体も前月比0.3%と予想の0.5%を下回るもののプラスに転じました。サンディの影響は一時的であり,ネット商戦の好調さからするともっと良くても良いのですが…今回は高望みは止めておきます。

米11月小売売上高(自動車除くコア): 0.0% (予想:0.0%,前月:0.0%)
米11月小売売上高: 0.3% (予想:0.5%,前月:-0.3%)

Please wait for Cleveland Fed data update

直近の雇用統計が良かったのもあってさすがにホリデー・シーズン商戦の底堅さを現したと思います。これで当面の米国経済のリスクは「財政の崖」の政治交渉が上手くまとまるかどうかです。実は出来レースのような気もしますが,当面はトレードもお休みして年末の政治ショーを日米ともに楽しみましょう。

FOMC statement, December 12, 2012

FOMC statement

今回は出張のためまとめるのが遅くなりました。2012年10月24日以来,約49日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回は政策金利は据え置きでしたが,来年以降米国債を毎月450億ドル購入する新たな計画が発表されました。また,失業率ターゲット政策に基づく現在の政策金利の継続なども決定されています。

1.景気回復については,"has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months"を継続中であるが,失業率が下がり雇用情勢も少し良くなってきたのでコンソリされている。とはいえ,サンディの影響で悪くなった幾つかの指標に対する言い訳も追加。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Growth in employment has been slow"から今回の"the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer"に変化し,Payrollから失業率の記述に変更。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"has advanced a bit more quickly"から今回の"has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement"に変化し,前回よりダメ押しの改善を示唆しているが,設備投資のほうは前回の"growth in business fixed investment has slowed"から変化はなく停滞感を継続。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation recently picked up somewhat"から今回の"Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective"に変化し長期目標水準より低めであるとの表現。後段はエネルギーコスト上昇について記述するも前回より一時的であることを強調。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions"から変更はない。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"から変化はなく,ユーロ圏の問題の継続を表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective"から変化なく,明示的にインフレ・ターゲット値を表現。(※7下線)
8.従来の緩和政策としては,前回の"the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month"から変化なく継続中。(※8下線)
9.新たな緩和政策としては,今回は"The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month"が追加され,長期国債の買い入れ開始を宣言。後段ではもう一度国債償還後の買い入れに言及。(※9下線以降)
10.前回とほぼ同じの"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability"の記述ではあるがABSだけでなく国債の部分が追加。(※10下線)
11.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,前回の"exceptionally low levels"の表現は今回の"this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent"に変化して,6.5%以上の失業率の間は現在の政策金利の継続を宣言。(※11下線)
12.上記の失業率ターゲット政策には,"no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored"というインフレ期待が2.5%以内であるという条件がついている。(※12下線)
13.これまでの日付ベースの緩和政策と今回の失業率ターゲットによる緩和政策の意図は変わらないという確認に加え,今後は労働市場の追加的測定値やインフレ圧力とインフレ期待の指標,金融情勢のその他の情報などの別の指標も緩和政策判断に使う可能性を示唆。(※13下線)
14.相変わらずラッカー総裁は追加緩和政策に反対し,緩和政策のいかなる条件提示にも不同意を表明。(※14下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that ※1economic activity and employment have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. ※2Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated. Household spending ※3has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement, but ※3growth in business fixed investment has slowed. ※4Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, ※6strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. ※9The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and, ※9in January, will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. ※10If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for ※11the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that ※11this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be ※12no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. ※13The Committee views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※14Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed the asset purchase program and the characterization of the conditions under which an exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate.

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管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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