EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

2012年第3四半期米GDPは予想を上回り…景気の底堅さを示す

Economy in U.S. Grows at 2% Rate, More Than Forecast

2012年3Q米実質GDP(前期比年率): 2.0% (予想:1.8%,前期:1.3%)
2012年3Q米個人消費(前期比年率): 2.0% (予想:2.1%,前期:1.5%)

第3四半期米GDPは前期比年率で予想を0.2%上回る2.0%の伸びでした。一方,個人消費のほうは予想を0.1%だけ下回る2.0%の伸びになりました。どちらも速報値ではありますが,共に2.0%を保ったのは意外な景気の底堅さを感じさせるものです。

Please wait for Cleveland Fed data update

上の図はGDPの変化に対する貢献率を示しているものですが,今回は個人消費と居住用不動産投資の貢献度が改善しています。また,GDPの伸びへの貢献度が前期より大きく増加しているのは政府支出です。これらにより設備投資や輸出および企業在庫によるGDPの貢献が落ち込んだ分がなんとかカバーできているようです。今週はFOMCやGDP速報値によってドルロング勢が優勢であったことは言うまでもありません。

FOMC statement, October 24, 2012

FOMC statement

今回は出張のためまとめるのが遅くなりました。2012年9月13日以来,約41日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回は政策金利は据え置きのままで,景気が上向きな見解を示した以外は実質第3パラグラフ以降は変化がなく,静かな会合だったようです。

1.景気回復については,前回の"has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months"を継続して変化なし。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"Growth in employment has been slow"を継続して変化なし。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"has continued to advance"から今回の"has advanced a bit more quickly"に変化し,少しだけ家計消費の増加の加速感を表現しているが,設備投資のほうは前回の"growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed"から今回の"growth in business fixed investment has slowed"に停滞感を確定。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has been subdued"から今回の"Inflation recently picked up somewhat"に変化して最近の上昇を表現。後段もエネルギーコストの上昇をそのまま表現。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions"から今回の"remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions"に変化して「懸念がある」から「懸念が残っている」と上向き期待の様子。「さらなる(further)」から「十分な(sufficient)」への変化はさすがにもう追加緩和はしないことを表現。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks"から変化はなく,ユーロ圏の問題の継続を表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前回の"inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective"を継続して変化なく,明示的にインフレ・ターゲット値を表現。(※7下線)
8.緩和政策としては前回の"the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month"から今回の"the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month"に変化し,前回の追加緩和政策の「開始」が「継続」になった以外の違いはない。(※8下線)
9.以降の第3パラグラフには変化がない。(※9下線以降)
10.QE3が不発に終わった時のことを想定して"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability"の記述は残し,第4パラグラフには全く変化がない。(※10下線)
11.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,"exceptionally low levels"の表現や"at least through mid-2015"の明確な時間軸設定も前回と同じ(※11下線)
12.ブレないラッカー総裁が追加緩和政策に反対し,緩和政策の時間軸表現への不同意を表明。(※12下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity ※1has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. ※2Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending ※3has advanced a bit more quickly, but ※3growth in business fixed investment has slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. ※4Inflation recently picked up somewhat, reflecting higher energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, ※6strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that ※7inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. ※9The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. ※10If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for ※11the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that ※11exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted ※11at least through mid-2015.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was ※12Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed additional asset purchases and disagreed with the description of the time period over which a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate and exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted.

 | HOME | 

PAGE TOP ▲

Appendix

EURO SELLER

EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

DTIブログポータルへ
このブログを通報
Report Abuse

Search

Calender

« | 2012-10 | »
S M T W T F S
- 1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31 - - -

Forex Rates

This site's QR Code