EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

米2月小売売上高はコアは予想を上回り,全体でも予想通りで順風

U.S. Retail Sales Rose in Feb. by Most in 5 Mos.

2月の小売売上高は「自動車を除くコア」が前月比0.9%と予想を上回り,全体は高めの予想通りの1.1%の増加でした。また1月の小売売上高もどちらも上方修正でしたので,FOMC前の指標としては株式市場にとって追い風となりました。為替市場にとっても,今回は力強い小売売上高の増加がドル全面高へつながっています。

米2月小売売上高(自動車除くコア): 0.9% (予想:0.7%,前月改定:1.1%[改定前:0.7%])
米2月小売売上高: 1.1% (予想:1.1%,前月改定:0.6%[改定前:0.4%])

Please wait for Cleveland Fed data update

いつもの定点観測ではありますが,米国景気の確認作業としては本格的な景気回復の継続を示唆しており,明らかに1か月前より市場のムードは良くなっています。

FOMC statement, March 13, 2012

FOMC statement

2012年1月25日以来,約48日ぶりのリリースでしたが,今回も政策金利は据え置きで追加の金融緩和政策などの大きな変化はありませんでした。景気が徐々に回復していることもあり,先回のPCEインフレ予測+緩和政策の時間軸設定=インタゲ政策にも近いのか(あるいはそういう誤認識を高める政策)などのような新機軸はなく新鮮味に乏しいステートメントです。

1.景気回復については,前回の"has been expanding moderately"から変化はない。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"the unemployment rate remains elevated"から今回の"the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months"へと直近の雇用統計の良さを反映。(※2下線)
3.家計消費だけでなく設備投資についても,"have continued to advance"と上方修正。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,前回の"Inflation has been subdued in recent months"は継承し,今回は"although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately"と原油価格とガソリン価格の上昇懸念を追記。(※4下線)
5.景気の展望については,前回の"expects economic growth over coming quarters to be modest"から今回の"expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters"に文体はやや変化もほぼニュアンスは同じ。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,今回は"Strains in global financial markets have eased"と金融市場がやや落ち着いたことを表現。(※6下線)
7.インフレ見通しについては,前段でもう一度原油とガソリンの価格上昇に言及したものの"inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate"の部分は前回とほとんど変わらない表現。(※7下線)
8.今回も緩和政策の維持を特に示唆する一文は継続中。(※8下線)
9.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで,今回も"warrant exceptionally"と"at least through late 2014"の明確な時間軸設定が継続。(※9下線)
10.第4パラグラフは全く変わらないで,"to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability"の表記も継続。(※10下線)
11.ラッカー総裁が前回に続き緩和政策の時間軸表現に反対。(※11下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economy ※1has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved further; ※2the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment ※3have continued to advance. The housing sector remains depressed. ※4Inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee ※5expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. ※6Strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The recent increase in oil and gasoline prices will push up inflation temporarily, but the Committee anticipates that subsequently ※7inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, ※8the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for ※9the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to ※9warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※9at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate ※10to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. ※11Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014.

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EURO SELLER

管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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