EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

FOMC statement, September 21, 2011

FOMC statement

2011年8月9日以来,約43日ぶりのリリースでした。今回は政策金利は据え置きでしたが,より重要なこととしてその段落より前にツイストオペ(短期国債を売って同額の長期国債を買うこと)に言及しています。また,景気回復の遅さへのいらだちが随所に感じられるだけでなく,景気後退へのダウンサイドリスクに対しても一層悲観的になっています。

1.景気回復については,前回の"considerably slower than the Committee had expected"から今回の"remains slow"と完全に停滞感を表現。(※1下線)
2.雇用情勢については,前回の"a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up."から今回の"continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated"とさらに失業率の高止まりの経過を指摘。(※2下線)
3.家計消費については,前回の"Household spending has flattened out"から今回の"Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months"と多少の増加を指摘。設備投資とソフトウェア投資については前回と同じ表現。(※3下線)
4.インフレ要因については,今回の"Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks."は前回とほぼ同じ表現。(※4下線)
5.失業率については,前回の"The Committee now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting"から今回の"The Committee continues to expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters but anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels"という表現で前回よりも願望が強くなった様子。(※5下線)
6.明らかな景況感の後退リスクは,前回の"Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased"から今回の"Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets"へと世界的な金融市場の停滞を挙げてさらに悲観的表現へ変化。(※6下線)
7.今回初出のツイストオペの部分で,"The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less."と3年以内の短期国債を4000億ドル売って,同額の6年から30年の長期国債を買うことを2012年6月まで継続すると明言。(※7下線)
8.ツイストオペの目的も,"This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative."のように,長期金利を下げてより金融市場を緩和する目的と主張。まあ,短期金利が下がった瞬間を見計らって代わりに長期金利を下げる高度な芸当ですな(※8下線)
9.今回さらりと追加されているのは,国債とともにABS(資産担保証券)の再投資も行うことを明示したこと。(※9下線)
10.レートは今回も0.25%で据え置きで(2013年の半ばまで継続予定が決定しているので)FOMC文内の優先順位は低い。今回も"warrant exceptionally"と"at least through mid-2013"の明確な時間軸効果はそのまま継続。(※10下線)
11.強い景気回復のためのツールに関して,(もうそんなに効果のあるものはないと思うけど)前回と同じ表現で「あるある詐欺」を繰り返しているような文言。(※11下線)
12.前回と同じ3名のFOMCメンバーが,時間軸効果の明言を含む今回の決定に引き続き反対している。(※12下線)

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that economic growth ※1remains slow. Recent indicators point to ※2continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. ※3Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor vehicles as supply-chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, ※3business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. ※4Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. ※5The Committee continues to expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters but anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. ※6Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. ※7The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. ※8This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

To help support conditions in mortgage markets, ※9the Committee will now reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for ※10the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to ※10warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate ※10at least through mid-2013.

※11The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action were ※12Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who did not support additional policy accommodation at this time.

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管理人のニックネームEURO SELLERの由来は,2005年6月の欧州憲法の否決の際にユーロを売りまくったことからきています。もう一つのシステムトレードのブログはこちらです。

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