EURO SELLERの為替・投資戦略ブログ

2005年6月の欧州憲法否決の際にユーロを売りまくった管理人の【新】為替・投資日記ブログです。くれぐれも投資行動は自己責任でお願いします。

ドル円もドルスイスも戻り売り推奨



FOMCで利下げ打ち止めのサインがなかったので,当面ドルの上値は重いと思います。

ドル円は,104円台半ばで戻り売り,ドルスイスは,1.04フラン台前半で戻り売りを推奨です。もちろん,GWに突入しますから無理に103円台や1.03フラン台で迎えにいかないでも良いですよ。(コスト的に良くなければ,ノーポジションのほうが良いということです。)

追記 2008/05/01 23:40:
1)ほぼ一日遅れで,ユーロドルが1.55ドルを下抜けしました。
2)吊られて,ドルスイスも一瞬1.05フランをつけました。完全に上抜けするかどうか!?
3)ドルの強さがドル円まで広がるかどうか!?

FOMC statement on 2008/04/30

予定通り25BPの利下げで,反対は2人
先月からあまり変わっていないが,景気減速の表現が消費だけでなくビジネス環境まで言及されるようになったことと,原油やコモディティについて言及してよりインフレに対する警戒感を強めたと言える。利下げ打ち止めの文言はなかったので,株式市場にとっては良い知らせですが対ユーロに対してはドルはまた弱くなるかもしれないです。

Release Date: April 30, 2008

For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2 percent.

Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

Although readings on core inflation have improved somewhat, energy and other commodity prices have increased, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 2-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, and San Francisco.

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